October 19 third-quarter economic data, which received great attention both at home and abroad, including third quarter GDP growth below 7%, since 2009 6-year low, which has received international attention and concern.
Economic growth above 7 for the first time for China to reform raises new problems, new challenges and new demands. One of the most worrying issue is, if the economy continues to slide, and will soon be affecting employment. Employment is not only an economic issue, but also a political issue for social stability. Where you can see United States reasons for include pegging the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve to the unemployment rate.
Although no specific employment data in economic indicators released by the 19th, however, China's National Bureau of statistics spokesman said in response to reporters ' questions, said, employment indicators of overall performance is good, new jobs in the first three quarters exceeded the annual plan targets. In 2015 the employment goals set out in the Government work report is a town of more than 10 million new jobs, and that is has completed the first three quarters of the 10 million people of job tasks. However, spokesman Frank: September unemployment data is around 5.2% our survey, more than two months before rising a little. Should be aware of is that this 5.2% unemployment rate is higher than that identified in the Government work report this year, the registered urban unemployment rate controlled at 4.5% target 0.7%. Employment employment in China of the most authoritative market research Institute published jointly with the recruitment of third quarter of 2015 the prosperity index report showed that China's employment market, at a time of economic restructuring, CIER index has risen from 2.03 per cent in the second quarter to 1.96, describes the current job market strained the whole situation. CIER index is highly correlated with GDP growth released by the National Bureau, reflected signs of economic slowdown is already affecting employment, the employment pressure has increased.
Forecast economic growth in the third quarter is still not optimistic, impact on employment will be highlighted. Rapid economic growth stages achieved high levels of employment is inevitable, this is not what skill while slowing economic growth especially endanger employment can solve the employment problem is really. It takes wisdom to deal with. General idea is to quickly reverse the economic decline, as employment rebounded fully. Slowdown in the economic situation cannot be reversed overnight cases, done article on must be structured, hold top contributor to employment in industry, accommodate employees up to the corporate sector to achieving employment in the economic slowdown does not slide.
Financial services cooling and employment and insufficient
Service is to accommodate employees up to the industry, vigorously develop the service industry was solving the employment pressures highlight the first choice. The first three quarters, the proportion of added value of the tertiary industry to GDP is 51.4%, 2.3% increase over the previous year, higher than that of secondary industry 10.8%. This may be in the economic growth fell below 7% impact on employment is not the main reason.
The first secondary industry in the process of the shift towards services, must grasp the employment of tertiary industry. Development of traditional services. Traditional service industries still accommodate the largest source of employment, at the same time, including our traditional services compared to a large gap with the developed countries, that has great potential. Added value of the tertiary industry increased 1% employment personnel at around 2 million, far greater than the average of the GDP increase.
The other is particular in developing emerging services. Emerging service sector employment situation has shown a good momentum. In CIER index high of industry in the, as: Internet/e-commerce, and fund/securities, and insurance, and education/training, industry, these more belongs to finance and Internet related of emerging service industry, in big data and "Internet +" rise of background Xia, for related talent of demand high, however meet conditions of talent number limited, so employment competition pressure relative smaller, employment situation better.
According to the recruitment, financial industry labor demand in the third quarter rose 29% (last quarter, an increase of 55%), in which the banking labor demand rose 45% (last quarter, an increase of 90%) Fund/investment/stock futures rose 28% (last quarter, an increase of 45%). With the development of inclusive financial, demand for financial professionals is not limited to one or two cities. Data also showed that the third quarter three demand for financial professionals and three of the following cities were more than 70% more than last year, significantly higher than the one or two cities.
Need to note a problem, financial industry as excessive development of high-end services erodes the real economy developments. The real economy is the fundamental way to resolve employment. At present China's financial sector to accommodate employees so crowded, its sustainability is questionable. In my opinion, mainly due to two factors: one is opening the financial industry has been increased, including private banking, securities, funds, increasing demand for talents in traditional institutions such as insurance and securities markets since last year after the unpopular financial institutions increase the marketing recruitment efforts. Second, originated from grassroots financial loan company flourished, including P2P network such as the Internet from scratch in two years to more than more than 4,000, absorbing a large number of employees.
However, with the introduction of different regulatory approaches, China's financial boom will slowly cool, employment will be slowly reduced, their sustainability and potential problem has emerged. Data in the report shows that decline in demand growth in the financial industry. Verify the author's judgment.
Internet + is the employment industry Central Bank Research Bureau emergency liquidity
Bureau of statistics of China in the first three quarters, online retail sales nationwide 2.5914 trillion yuan, an increase of 36.2%. Among them, the physical goods online retail sales 2.151 trillion yuan, an increase of 34.7%, share of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 10%; 440.4 billion yuan in retail sales of non-physical goods online, 43.6%. New economy become strong economic power of the Internet, and has very long periods of time. Meanwhile, leading logistics employment more and more staff. Internet industry labor demand data show that IT/Internet demand in the third quarter of this year rose by 41%, with the increase in the previous quarter (47%) of flat. With the fusion of traditional industries and speeding up the Internet, "Internet +" idea of trends affecting business development.
This year third quarter, as Internet field in the most mature of commercial mode, e-commerce in wire and the wire following city of talent needs volume are growth has 100% above, in line, and new line and second-tier city on talent of needs also growth has 50% above; and in recent years rise of network game this a field talent demand in second-tier, and wire city of growth most significantly, respectively reached 72%, and 130%. In addition, computer hardware demand shows that second-tier below the central city and the progressive development of the Pearl River Delta region for the computer hardware manufacturing base. With the Basic, normal development of the Internet, demand for talent in this field is expected to continue to grow, the future is still chasing the market focus. Isolated small town in the hometown of the national day holiday, also set up e-commerce Park, attracting many workers.
Have emerged on the Internet economy, including Internet + bubble questions and doubts about their employment potential. This concern is completely unnecessary. Socio-economic activities are moving to the Internet, especially to move is the trend of mobile Internet.
Real estate contributions to employment cannot retreat
Accelerated urbanization, to stimulate the real estate recovery, stimulating employment. Data from the national statistical offices, real estate development and sales are not a fundamental recovery in the first three quarters, land acquisition area real estate development enterprises fell 33.8%. In late September, national real estate for sale 665.1 million square meters, an increase of 16.4%. Reports show that since last year, the real estate industry has failed to usher in a full recovery. Declining performance, profitability declined severely, and even the strength of big real estate firms are thus affected. Judging from the data, the real estate industry and corporate situation has not improved, following the last quarter (-11%), the negative growth of the online real estate industry positions again, by as much as-15%. Both the number of trades contracting jobs exceeds demand, and the uncertainties of the future development of the industry, are factors impeding real estate industry growth in labor demand.
Do? By vigorously promoting urbanization led the real estate recovery and boost employment. Thanks to the urbanization construction, labor demand up data from different cities, three-wire and wire the following cities in 2015 in the third quarter over the same period last year, increase in the number of online job 37%, 12% significantly improved compared with the previous quarter, mainly in infrastructure such as traffic/transportation industry, on the growth of the e-commerce industry. Urbanization employment area is integrated in a broad. Boost urbanization is the effective countermeasures to cope with employment pressures.
All in all, resolve the employment pressures in the economic slowdown as well as more applied policies and the ubiquitous, also dislocation breakthroughs and focusing.
(Representative of the article content is only personal opinion)
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